How human activity and climate change made the UAE’s record-breaking flood 30 times more likely
In April 2024, the United Arab Emirates was hit by the most intense rainstorm ever recorded in the country’s history. Over 250mm of rain fell in just 24 hours — more than the annual average in some regions — paralyzing cities like Dubai and causing massive infrastructure damage. A new study published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science dissects the event’s causes and consequences and provides compelling evidence that climate change made such a storm significantly more likely. It also calls for better forecasting, climate-informed urban planning, and improved flood defenses to reduce the risks from future extreme weather.
The research team, led by Dr. Diana Francis, identified several overlapping meteorological phenomena behind the storm. A potential vorticity streamer, a Red Sea Trough, and an upper-level jet stream all converged to transport warm, moisture-rich air from the Arabian Sea into the lower atmosphere over the UAE. Sea surface temperatures in the region were up to 2C above the 20-year average, providing the fuel for deep convection and heavy rainfall.
Using climate simulations, the researchers estimate that human-driven climate change made the April deluge 30 times more likely to occur. Although the increase in intensity is less certain, the frequency change alone is statistically significant. What was once a 10,000-year event is now likely to recur every few centuries and could become even more frequent in the future.
The flooding exposed sharp contrasts within urban environments. High-resolution satellite data revealed that damage was greatest in densely populated and heavily developed areas of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. City planning, proximity to the coast, and inadequate drainage infrastructure played key roles in shaping local flood impacts. While some neighborhoods remained accessible, others were effectively cut off for days.
Beyond cities, the storm left an unexpected ecological mark. Satellite observations in the months following the rain showed a dramatic increase in vegetation across the desert. Areas that were barren in 2023 were visibly green by June 2024, with some regions seeing vegetation cover increase by over 100 percent. This short-term greening of the desert PÕ¾ÊÓƵ how rare rain events can temporarily transform arid landscapes.
The researchers conclude that while climate change did not necessarily intensify the April 2024 storm, it did make it far more likely. Combined with rapid urbanization and current infrastructure, the changing climate sets the stage for future problems unless proactive adaptation measures are taken.
Jade Sterling
Science Writer
